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博客:展望下一个100年

期待下一个100年…

Maiku Boger和Karey Holland

一百年前,半导体这个词仅仅是指那些既不是完全导体,也不是完全绝缘体的材料。快进到今天,半导体构成了一个数十亿美元的产业。今天,我们的周围几乎都是集成了晶体管和内存的设备:我们的电脑、电话、台灯,甚至我桌子上用来缓解日本酷热天气的小风扇,都在设计中加入了晶体管。一块芯片上有数十亿个晶体管。 内存不再以千字节为单位,而是以千兆字节为单位——容量增加了一百万倍。家庭使用的存储驱动器现在以tb为单位,比千字节的容量大10亿倍。一台好的计算机过去只有1兆字节的硬盘存储空间,而今天它有数百兆字节。在过去的40年里,唯一没有改变的是一台好计算机的价格——这是由于半导体器件的微型化和纳米级工程的进步而带来的成本降低的惊人成就,而真空则使之成为可能。我们现在拥有传感器、自动化和设备,这些技术是我们年轻时从未想象过的。一台计算机现在可以击败国际象棋冠军,并帮助医生为病人开出治疗方案。 Our phones are more powerful than my college desktop and some even have foldable displays. So, what next? Advances in artificial intelligence and similar technologies will become ubiquitous. Expect to see automated vehicles that you just call up. In fact, you probably won’t even own a vehicle. The technology is already emerging where greater processing power and multitudes of sensors are added to vehicles allowing them to automatically, and safely, navigate roads. Semiconductor devices are already evolving to become more like the human brain, and we expect this to continue into the future, potentially bringing us organic devices that combine memory and logic.  This means that they will use logic to “learn” from “experiences” stored in memory and then incorporate this learning into future decisions. Semiconductors will be able to weigh the costs and benefits of any decision at lightning speed, far faster than us mere mortals. Your smart phone will be your personal computer and probably be the size of a large ring. Once removed from your finger, it may project a coloured, holographic display and keyboard on a flat surface, or even just use voice. Early implementations may require the use of special goggles to allow you to see the screen. Some of us will be augmented with technology, perhaps at a cellular level, to become smarter, faster, and stronger. Transistors are already smaller than the dimensions of any cell. Once silicon-based semiconductors can become co-habitable with biological elements, expect to see the introduction of nanoscale computers directly injected into your body to improve endocrinal or other functions. If the degradation of our DNA strands can be slowed, or even halted, we will all live decades longer. The ubiquitous technology that will surround us a hundred years from now is like magic today. No matter how technology evolves, one thing is for certain: vacuum and abatement processes will be required to provide the pristine environments required for nanoscale manufacturing. At Edwards, we look forward to enabling these developments by continuing to engineer environments where the world’s innovation can thrive.

Maiku Boger, Edwards日本有限公司半导体全球市场部门经理,Karey Holland, Edwards半导体工艺技术全球市场部门经理